The popularity of electric cars is increasing at an exponential rate. New technology and innovation are pushing electric cars to become a more popular choice on the car market. With all that is happening with electric cars, it is easy to see that electric cars are in and gasoline-powered cars are on their way out.
Will all cars be electric in 10 years? According to current trends in car sales and projected sales, a grand majority of cars sold in ten years will be electric. Gasoline cars sold in previous years will probably still be around, but new cars will be electric. Most car companies actually have planned to completely stop making gasoline or diesel-powered vehicles by the year 2030.
Many experts predict that this wave of electric cars will increase just as the internal combustion engine car grew in popularity with the invention of the assembly line by Henry Ford. More and more places are creating infrastructure to welcome electric cars. For example, an increasing number of gas stations and even stores are installing charging stations. It is pretty easy to see that the way that the car industry is moving is primarily towards electric cars.
Why All Cars Won’t Be Electric In 10 Years
Well, think about it, it really is common sense. Are all cars on the road today made within the last ten years? The answer is of course no, there is a good number of cars that are well over ten years old that are still on the road today. This trend will probably stay the same for 10 years in the future. People try to get the most bang for their buck and have their cars last as long as possible. People that are buying new cars today in 2021 will still have those cars, or at least have sold those cars to someone else who will be driving them.
Another reason why all cars won’t be electric in ten years is infrastructure. It is estimated that there are nearly 1.4 billion cars in the world today and an estimated 276 million of those cars are in the United States. So let’s just look at the United States. If you were to take all 276 million of those cars and replace them with electric cars in ten years, it would require a huge amount of electricity to power all of these cars.
The electric industry is already looking at this challenge and making plans to help accommodate for the increase in electric cars. In ten years though, it is unlikely that all of the added electrical lines, charging stations, and electrical production can be in place to support 276 million electric cars in the United States. It just isn’t possible. The change will come but changes like this take time.
A third reason that all cars won’t be electric in ten years is something I briefly mentioned earlier, the used car industry. The used car industry is huge and will continue to be in the future. According to https://www.mckinsey.com/ the demand for used cars in the US is a whopping 39.4 million yearly versus a meager 17.3 million for new cars. This data shows us that the average consumer does value used cars.
Used cars are a great alternative for many people and are often cheaper and therefore in the price range of more people. I strongly believe that this commonality will continue 10 years from now. I bring this up because even if in 10 years most car industries will be producing only electric cars, the used car market will still be saturated with internal combustion-engined vehicles.
How Long Until All New Cars Will Be Electric?
Of course, no one can know the exact year when all new cars will be electric. But a great number of car companies including big ones like Ford, General Motors, and Volkswagen have already given dates for when they plan on eliminating gas-powered vehicles from their production lines. According to the BBC, Ford says that by 2030 all of its cars sold in Europe will be electric, General motors say that by 2035 all of their cars produced will be electric, and Volkswagen predicts that 70% of its cars sold in 2030 will be electric cars.
With big companies like these leading the charge, as well as companies like Tesla, smaller companies are sure to follow suit. When new technology is created, like the electric car, it may take many years to catch on but historically its popularity will grow at an exponential rate. This trend can be seen throughout history and this trend will probably continue with electric cars. As companies continue to ramp up the production of electric vehicles and begin to halt the production of gasoline-fueled vehicles, society will have to forcibly move to electric vehicles.
The investing bank USB made some of its own predictions regarding electric cars. According to them, by 2025, 20 percent of new cars purchased will be electric. They continue by adding that in 2030 they predict that by 2030, 40% of new car purchases will be electric and by 2040, almost every new car will be electric. When compared to many other mainstream predictions, this is very hopeful. Many people believe that because gasoline-fueled vehicles are so prevalent that they will be around for quite some time even until 2050 or 2060.
One thing that will definitely add to the increase of electric cars is if their prices continue to decrease. At the moment, electric cars cannot be made in a way that makes them cheaper than gasoline or diesel-fueled counterparts. On the other hand, the price of gasoline continues to increase which may push consumers to electric cars which can be “fueled” for a much lesser cost. If companies and innovators find ways to decrease the cost of electric cars to where they are visibly cheaper to purchase and maintain, sales of electric vehicles will skyrocket.
How Long Until Every Car On The Road Is Electric?
The simple answer would be, not for a long time. As I talked about earlier, internal combustion-engined cars are going to probably be seen on the road for quite some time, due to the fact that people are going to continue to keep driving them until the cars die. Seeing that internal combustion-engined cars are still the most produced car today, it will probably be two to three decades before we see our well-loved gasoline cars disappear completely.
The New York Times went ahead and made estimations while trying to answer this very question. They predict that in 2035 only about 13% of cars on the road will be electric. Why are the rates so small if most companies say that they will only be producing electric vehicles by then? For the very reason I just stated, gasoline-powered cars are going to stick around for a while.
The New York Times goes on to predict that in 2050, 60% of new car sales will be electric cars but the majority of cars on the road will still be internal combustion-engined cars. They also state that if the United States would want to have all electric cars on the road by 2050, sales of gasoline and diesel-run vehicles would completely have to end by the year 2035. Personally, I think even if this happened there would still be gasoline-fueled cars on the road.
There is one possibility that could speed up the turn over of cars on the road from gasoline to electric and that is national governments. Many national governments have already begun to offer incentives for people with electric cars to help encourage people to purchase them. Also, there are whispers of governments thinking to outlaw gasoline cars by a certain year. If this were to occur it would definitely put more electric cars on the road but the response of the public might not allow those laws to be put into place.
Electric cars are definitely where the future of cars is headed, that much is known. Unknown though is the amount of time it will take to get there. Just as it took years for inventions like the internet to catch on, my guess is it will take even longer before electric cars have the full rule of the road. Only the future will tell how the popularity of electric cars will continue to grow.